There are a lot of smart, knowledgeable people in the world. The problem with humans isn't a lack of knowledge. It's that we always think we know far more than we do! Choosing a good path forward requires making predictions about the future. Here's today's reminder about how homo-sapiens perform at predictions. Source This task … Continue reading Coronavirus Covid19 Predictions →

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." -Yogi Berra Imagine that you have an alien supercomputer that can simulate the future with perfect accuracy. You can look ahead and see what will happen to the world in 10, or 100, or 1000 years. Then imagine that you can make changes to the simulation … Continue reading Steering the Future Towards Progress →

I can't have a blog without plugging Effective Altruism, one of my favorite movements. Effective altruism is about answering one simple question: how can we use our resources to help others the most? Rather than just doing what feels right, we use evidence and careful analysis to find the very best causes to work on. But it's … Continue reading Effective Altruism →