I go visit Omega, and Omega says, "Hi, here's a box with a gift in it. Before you open it, you should take $1000 in cash and light it on fire." So then I get ten $100 bills, light them on fire, and then open my box. I find a million dollars inside. Woohoo! Later my friend … Continue reading A Better Version of Newcomb’s Paradox →

Whenever there’s a political issue in the news, we almost always hear debates from the two sides: we hear from experts who support it and from experts who oppose it. But there’s someone missing from these debates. Isn’t it odd that they never include an expert who thinks the answer is uncertain? If 10,000 experts … Continue reading The Missing Third Expert →

I have friends who range from Trump supporters to Bernie fans, and from Marxists to Libertarians. Each of them thinks that they see things perfectly clearly, and that most of the rest of us are idiots. It seems to be a pretty universal trait. We all feel perfectly comfortable going on Twitter and judging which … Continue reading Rationality in Two Paragraphs →